The Philadelphia Phillies are not exactly in a bad spot. They re-signed Kyle Schwarber who, alongside Christopher Sanchez, carried the Phillies to yet another playoff berth last season. They still have Bryce Harper and Trea Turner. Their payroll ranks amongst the highest in the sport.

So why does it feel this way? Why does it feel like the window for this current team is slamming shut? Many are subject to scrutiny, but who is to blame?

After winning an MVP in 2021 and being a pillar of the franchise for years, all while dealing with lackluster rosters, a myriad of injuries, and doubt over his "elite" status, it's hard to cast any blame on Bryce Harper. After an awful start to his Phillies career, Trea Turner has lived up to the hype, although a hamstring injury hampered his effectiveness on the basepaths last season. Kyle Schwarber has been as consistent as they come, hitting in the lower-.200's while belting 40 or so long balls.

When the stars perform, blame typically gets spread between the manager and the one responsible for assembling the roster. While Turner and Schwarber were both signings of Dave Dombrowski, so too were Nick Castellanos, Taijuan Walker, and Max Kepler. After a 1-year "prove it" contract blew up in his face last year, DD now pivots to Adolis Garcia to prove that he, unlike Kepler, can turn things around. Call it a project or call it a redemption arc, it is more than fair to question the creativity of having to rely on Adolis Garcia to provide a bulk of the "slug" for this iteration of the Phillies outfield.

The Phillies expect Justin Crawford, a speedy ground-ball hitter, to break camp as the everyday Centerfielder. Thus, Garcia being the power bat in the outfield may not be as ominous as it may seem, but it certainly puts pressure on Crawford to produce right away. Maybe Dombrowski's faith in Crawford will be rewarded, but it is very much a deviation in his tried and true methodology of dealing prospects for known assets.

After all, when Dombrowski took over As President of Baseball Operations for the Phillies, eyebrows were raised for this very reason. One side of the fan base believed that the Phillies were willing to stop at nothing to bring a World Series trophy down Broad Street while the other dreaded gutting an already-depleted farm system to maybe fulfill the prophecy. As it turns out, neither side appears to be right. Although the Phillies have spent with the best of 'em, they have very little to show for it. However, they have a farm system that is slowly rising the ranks, but will likely take a big hit once its A-tier prospects graduate from the list.

Now we return to the question: do the Phillies have a Dave Dombrowski problem? This answer will likely be tied to the success of Andrew Painter, Justin Crawford, and Aidan Miller. If they are who the Phillies think they could be, then Dombrowski may have kept a championship window open for years to come for so long as the current stars can produce for a few more seasons until subsequent reinforcements come knocking. The potential risk lays in a scenario where even one of them does not pan out which complicates future sustained success with only so many above average regulars when Schwarber, Turner, Harper, and Nola hit their mid-30's, and when Wheeler and Realmuto approach 40.

Let's not be hypocritical, though. Would we be asking this question if Bo Bichette had signed earlier in free agency? Definitely not. But Bo Bichette is a Met, and the Phillies did nothing to improve the roster from that point on. While considering Bichette, the Phillies knew that they would have to get creative with the existing roster. Would they move on from Bohm? Would they be willing to move Stott to third?

When they missed out on Bichette, they also missed out on an opportunity to get creative with an otherwise stale lineup. We know who Alec Bohm is, and we know who Bryson Stott is. We know that Bohm will hover around .280 with solid defense (an attribution to the work he has put in on that side of the ball), but will not provide much slug. Bryson Stott improved as the year went on last season, but will not provide much pop - though he will play a good second base and will provide exceptional speed in an older lineup.

Creativity aside, the immediate fallout from losing out on Bichette was re-signing JT Realmuto. While this makes a world of a difference on the pitching side, would that money have been better spent elsewhere? We are reminded time and time again that Castellanos and Walker will not be on the payroll following next season, so if future financials are a pressing concern for the organization, is signing a declining catcher for $15M annually a wise choice? Absolutely not.

So, the roster is what it is, and it seems to be culminating in the infamous Andy MacPhail "if we don't, we don't" mindset. If the Phillies don't win this season, there will likely not be much more that this current core can do to put together a championship run. Guys like Aaron Nola and JT Realmuto have regressed. Zack Wheeler is coming back from major Thoracic Outlet Syndrome (TOS) surgery and will play A vast majority of this season at 36 years old. Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper will play in their age 33 seasons, and Trea Turner will join them in June. We can already pencil in Bohm and Scott's production respectively, and we can expect some ups and downs with a Brandon Marsh/Otto Kemp platoon.

It remains to be seen how much Adolis Garcia will contribute, and the overall depth of this Phillies team is slim. Although Dombrowski seems well aware of the need to get younger by trying to sign a 27-year-old in free agency and holding onto prospects tighter than he ever has in the past, only time will tell if his gambles will prove fruitful.

Coach.

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